Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Active, Sold & Expired A closer look for October, 2006 of the Hemet Real Estate Market

Today I thought I would take a closer snapshot of the real estate market on the East end of Hemet. For this report, I am focusing strictly on zip code 92544, which most of falls in the unincorporated area of Riverside county. This area is also known as both East Hemet and Valle Vista, although there are distinct differences once you become more familiar with the area.

First I check the Hemet MLS to see just how many properties are actively being marketed on the MLS and come up with 291. The first thing I realize is how inexpensive property can still be bought for in Valle Vista. (MLS #P528638) is a 2 bedroom condo on a small side street off of Acacia & Dartmouth.

So we know there are 291 properties currently for sale in the Hemet zip code, with a starting price of $135,000 going all the way up to a 20 acre ranch (MLS #P544383) for a mere $1,499,900. The ‘Medium’ price for a home in the area, currently for sale today, is $339,900 which means that 146 of the homes are priced less than that and 146 are priced higher than that.

The ‘Medium’ price should not be confused with the ‘Average’ price, which is $513,813. This number is calculated by adding the listing price of all 291 homes on the market (a total of $63,199,0389) and dividing by the 291 homes used for this calculation. In this case, if there was an ‘Average’ home on the market, it would be the 244th most expensive home in East Hemet.

An important aspect of the data, which is often over looked, is the commission. Now, trust me, I don’t want to come across as a greedy Realtor, but the truth be told, commission helps sell homes. I will post another article to this blog in the near future to further explain the importance of commission when it comes to selling a home, but for now, let’s look at the data and you can make your own conclusions.

First well examine the ACTIVE Listings on the Hemet MLS.

Overall Market - ACTIVE
Number of Listings: 291
Average Price: $391,904
Medium Price: $339,900
Total Inventory: $114,044,131
Days On Market: 84.67

2% Commission
Number of Listings: 13
Average Price: $306,508
Medium Price: $298,000
Total Inventory: $3,984,599
Days On Market: 48.54

2.5% Commission
Number of Listings: 109
Average Price: $428,270
Medium Price: $349,900
Total Inventory: $46,681,394
Days On Market: 87.25

3% Commission
Number of Listings: 154
Average Price: $369,707
Medium Price: $335,000
Total Inventory: $56,934,949
Days On Market: 87.24

3.5% Commission
Number of Listings: 4
Average Price: $369,700
Medium Price: $366,900
Total Inventory: $1,478,800
Days On Market; 34

4% Commission
Number of Listings: 8
Average Price: $520,910
Medium Price: $510,000
Total Inventory: $4,167,279
Days On Market; 71.28


5% Commission
Number of Listings: 2
Average Price: $290,000
Medium Price: $290,000
Total Inventory: $580,000
Days On Market; 66

Whenever you look at home statistics, the active price is often over-inflated. Sellers are hopeful that their home will bring top dollar and are often priced higher than actual market value. Many times, real estate agents will inflate the value for a listing presentation, hoping it will give them the edge when it comes to getting the listing, over the competition. (Again, this is a topic for another post) This price does not reflect reductions that will be taken as the listing ages nor does it take into account that the seller will typically accept an offer of less than what they had hoped to get.

The next set of numbers is referred to as the SOLD listings. These are the listings that closed escrow during the specific time period being reviewed, in this case the month of October, 2006 for the Hemet MLS in the same zip code 92544 as we looked at the earlier numbers.

Overall Market - SOLD
Number of Listings: 40
Average Price: $346,325
Medium Price: $264,500
Total Inventory: $13,853,000
Days On Market: 87.55

2% Commission
Number of Listings: 2
Average Price: $594,950
Medium Price: $594,950
Total Inventory: $1,189,900
Days On Market: 192.5

2.5% Commission
Number of Listings: 14
Average Price: $346,850
Medium Price: $282,450
Total Inventory: $4,855,900
Days On Market: 102.14

3% Commission
Number of Listings: 22
Average Price: $325,555
Medium Price: $ 299,500
Total Inventory: $7,162,200
Days On Market: 67.54

4% Commission
Number of Listings: 2
Average Price: $322,500
Medium Price: $322,500
Total Inventory: $645,000
Days On Market: 100.5

The last set of numbers that I will discuss today is the EXPIRED Listings. These are the listings that were listed with a real estate agent for a very specific period of time. 3 and 6 months are very typical listing periods, but they can be anything for a specific day to a year or more, especially when the property is unique and the seller is looking for that one special buyer.

Expired listings are the listings that the market has rejected. There can be a number of reasons. Being overpriced is always a top contender for the reason why a listing failed to sell. Other reasons may be the condition of the property; it may be cluttered and not staged properly; and believe it or not but there are times when a seller really does not want to sell and they will sabotage their own listing.

Let’s look at the expired listings in zip code 92544 for the month of October, 2006:


Overall Market - EXPIRED
Number of Listings: 41
Average Price: $427,807
Medium Price: $385,000
Total Inventory: $17,540,090
Days On Market: 134.73

2% Commission
Number of Listings: 3
Average Price: $401,833
Medium Price: $405,500
Total Inventory: $1,205,500
Days On Market: 163.67

2.25% Commission
Number of Listings: 2
Average Price: $660,450
Medium Price: $660,450
Total Inventory: $1,320,900
Days On Market: 91.5

2.5% Commission
Number of Listings: 17
Average Price: $479,812
Medium Price: $ 389,000
Total Inventory: $8,156,800
Days On Market: 129.17

3% Commission
Number of Listings: 18
Average Price: $382,272
Medium Price: $367,450
Total Inventory: $6,880,900
Days On Market: 142.61

3.5% Commission
Number of Listings: 1
Average Price: $299,900
Medium Price: $299,900
Total Inventory: $299,900
Days On Market: 87

Well, there you have it. A real hard look at real numbers and how they apply to the Hemet real estate market – specifically East Hemet in the 92544 zip code. These are not numbers that I can just push a button and have the computer generate this report. This was a time consuming research project that took several hours of crunching to bring it all together, so I won’t be generating similar reports for every neighborhood for every time period, but from time to time you can count on me looking deep into the actual numbers of the MLS and figuring out what they mean to me as a Realtor and you as a consumer.

Please come back and visit this blog often, as I will be writing several articles in the very near future using the data that I’ve gathered here today, and embellishing it with more statistical research into the current trend and condition of the Hemet Real Estate market.

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me directly at 951.443.6259. Just remember one thing as you look at numbers – something a mentor taught me 30 some years ago, something I’ll never forget,

“Figures don’t lie…Liars figure!”

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